For almost 70 years, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada’s national housing agency offering objective research and information on the status of the housing market in Canada.
In mid-January, the CMHC published its quarterly Housing Market Assessment (HMA) evaluating the market conditions in 15 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) of Canada. The HMA analytical framework is designed to assess housing market conditions by taking into consideration the economic, financial and demographic drivers of housing markets. The use of multiple indicators of housing conditions, which incorporate various data sources and price measures, provides a robust picture of overall housing market conditions.
The overall findings based on the framework, was that there is weak evidence of problematic conditions at the national level. House prices remain higher than levels consistent with personal disposable income, population growth and other factors signifying a moderate overvaluation is still observed.
The HMA points to strong overall evidence of problematic conditions in Calgary, Saskatoon, and Regina due to the detection of overvaluation and overbuilding. Low oil prices are impacting Alberta and Saskatchewan, weakening demographic and economic fundamentals such as migration, employment, and income, which are in turn affecting housing markets.
In Toronto, overall strong evidence of problematic conditions reflects a combination of price acceleration and overvaluation. There appears to also be the potential emergence of overbuilding in Toronto due to the high number of condominium units under construction. Inventory management therefore continues to be necessary to make sure that these condominium units under construction do not remain unsold upon completion.
In Winnipeg, the evidence of problematic conditions has been lowered from strong to moderate. This is due to the evidence of overvaluation being reduced with improving economic and demographic fundamentals. Additional information on the report and the results for the 15 CMAs is available at www.cmhc.ca/hma . The next Housing Market Assessment report is scheduled to be released on April 27, 2016.
As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC continually works to increase the amount of available data and analysis on the housing market. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.